Bournemouth vs Arsenal Premier League Preview

Bournemouth vs Arsenal: Cherries’ European hopes tested by Arsenal

Before digging into the two teams specifically I am going to do a little exercise that I always find fun. I will put the two teams stats in a table but not label the teams. I enjoy doing this because far too often we unconsciously let the club names with the narratives, history and prestige affect the way we look at teams.

All stats are league matches only and are per match.

Team xG Shots Penalty Box Shots xG Against Shots Against Penalty Box Shots Against
Team A 1.9 12.7 8 1.4 13.4 6.6
Team B 1.4 12.1 6.5 1.4 13.9 7.1

The first impression from this exercise is that these two teams are very close on the statistics they have produced through a third of the season. Team A looks like they are a slightly better team with a better expected goals created and a superior shot ratio (even if it is negative overall) and a much better penalty box shot ratio. Read More

Arsenal vs Liverpool Premier League Preview

Arsenal vs Liverpool Preview: Will regression decide the outcome?

With over a quarter of the season gone, it may seem odd that, when Arsenal and Liverpool clash on Saturday evening, there still remains uncertainty about how good either of the sides are. But neither of the opponents from Matchday 11’s most intriguing tie have lived up to the sort of numbers they have been posting in the Premier League so far this season.

In many respects, Arsenal are to this season what Manchester United were to last season. Despite finishing second in the league last year, Jose Mourinho’s United scored nine goals more than their expected goals (xG) values suggested they would, conceding 15 goals fewer than the same metric projected they should have conceded. As any statistician worth their salt will tell you, over- or under-performance against xG values is unsustainable in the long run and, lo and behold, this season, Manchester United find themselves regressing towards the norm with wild abandon. Read More

Cardiff City vs Arsenal

Cardiff City vs Arsenal Preview: Does Ozil deserve a start in Wales?

After the 3-1 win against West Ham, much of the talk was about the absence of Mesut Ozil from the matchday squad. Unai Emery said the playmaker was ill but had recuperated enough to enter the dressing room before the game. Any other player and it could have slipped under the radar, however it was Ozil.

Prior to the game it was reported that there was a rift between the German and the coach regarding demands that Emery had of Ozil. The former PSG manager denied any rift in the press conference after the game. However, when Emery was asked if he planned to play Ozil in a different position, the Spaniard’s reply was a terse and instructive ‘maybe’.

After Emery took over from Arsene Wenger, he spoke about the need for more intensity in pressing and the need to be more defensively aware. In the three games the coach has managed, there has been measured progress and sparse semblance of what he demands. However, it seems Ozil hasn’t added to the process as much as he needs to. Read More

Chelsea vs Arsenal preview

Chelsea vs Arsenal preview: Mutual test on rebuilding process for Sarri and Emery

While there was no surprise in the result of Unai Emery’s baptism into the Premier League against defending champions Manchester City, the ease with which Pep Guardiola’s men cut through Arsenal was dispiriting. The Gunners didn’t seem to land a punch, not even a cursory jab, as the Post-Wenger years truly began for Arsenal.

The fixture list is unkind to Emery as he continues his Premier League sojourn at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea. Like Arsenal, Chelsea brought in a new manager seeking a jolt and renaissance from the tedious final days of Antonio Conte.

Maurizio Sarri’s Premier League debut in the Chelsea’s dugout went rather swimmingly. Admittedly, Huddersfield were a lacklustre opponent who could have serious troubles with relegation this season, and it wasn’t peak Sarri-ball replete with intricate movement and delicate build-up. However, the emphatic scoreline without the team’s standout attacker for the majority of the game was a sure-footed start. Read More

Arsenal Manchester City Preview

Arsenal vs. Manchester City Preview: The Emery era begins

The blockbuster match up of the opening weekend of the Premier League is champions Manchester City coming to the Emirates Stadium to face Arsenal.

Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City broke a number of records last season on their way to 100 points and now face the task of trying to top one of the best seasons of all time. Arsenal limped to their worst finish since 1994-95 and saw their legendary coach Arsene Wenger retire.

Manchester City Drop Attackers into Midfield

The backbone of Manchester City’s title team were Kevin De Bruyne and David Silva; both of whom in most systems would line up as attacking midfielders but in Pep Guardiola’s system were used as more traditional midfielders but with the freedom to attack. Having both start from deep allowed Manchester City to add another attacker to the starting XI while still having numerical superiority in midfield.

This also unlocked De Bruyne and Silva to post some of the best attacking numbers in the league even from a deeper starting position, coming up the second and seventh most highly rated by the Twelve model. Read More