This season, Anfield has been a fortress. Liverpool have yet to lose at home, and of their five draws, only the 1-1 against Chelsea reflected an even expected goals scoreline. The Reds have created ten non-penalty clear scoring chances in those draws and conceded only three. The typical home Liverpool performance has been dominant, even when the result occasionally has not been the win that performance deserved.

Liverpool will be looking to continue this run at home this weekend to Tottenham. But Spurs have something to build on too. Tottenham just beat Manchester United handily, and the last time they took on Liverpool, it ended in a 4-1 victory. Spurs created about 3.3 expected goals in that victory, the largest total that the Reds have conceded all season. In fact, the only other time Liverpool conceded more than two expected goals was against Manchester City, in a match that turned on an early Sadio Mane red card.

So which trend will be broken? This depends on one key dynamic. Can Liverpool push Tottenham back? The Reds’ home dominance has been driven by a relentless press and forward motion. They have successfully moved the ball forward in open play into the opposition penalty area 222 times in home matches, the most in the league. With waves of pressure to win the ball back and attackers pushing forward, Liverpool pin the opposition back and leave them no space to counter.

But at Wembley earlier this season, it was precisely this dynamic that Spurs thwarted. Liverpool managed only five open play attacking moves into Tottenham’s penalty area. Spurs successfully played quickly around the press by involving unexpected players into the play and looking to spring Harry Kane free against the Liverpool center backs.

One might expect to see Christian Eriksen’s attacking map featuring several key long passes forward, but right back Kieran Trippier was if anything more effective. His quick forward ball to Kane broke Liverpool’s press for Spurs’ first goal.

This weekend, Liverpool must contain Spurs’ quick-hitting attack and re-establish their suffocating pressure. The Reds will have two key advantages to press to make this happen. The first is Virgil Van Dijk. The new center back will likely replace Dejan Lovren in the lineup, and it was Lovren that Spurs targeted so effectively in their passes forward to Kane. If Tottenham seek to rush the ball forward, it might be possible to thwart this movement simply with better defensive play in the back line.

The second advantage is also a matter of personnel. Liverpool tried against Spurs to play a bruising midfield of Jordan Henderson, James Milner and Emre Can. These stronger but slower midfielders found themselves pushed back and unable to challenge Spurs quickly. Henderson and Milner ended up doing more defending in their own half than pushing forward to win the ball and dominate play.

It is unlikely that Jurgen Klopp will make a similar selection on Sunday. In fact, Klopp started his three big midfielders against Huddersfield in midweek. Spurs should expect to see a faster and more dynamic midfield, likely featuring one or both of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Georginio Wijnaldum. This personnel should be more suited to closing down Spurs’ quick attacks and springing their own moves off the counterpress to pin Tottenham back. Liverpool’s press has been dominant at home, and the right personnel should enable the Reds to keep this run going.

Clubs do not usually sell their top players in January without a very good reason. Liverpool, locked in a tight top four race and looking forward to a relatively easy Champions League knockout tie against Porto, would seem if anything to have reason not to sell. But sell they did, sending Philippe Coutinho to Barcelona for an incredible 140 million. The reason for the sale, as reported, were less about any football reason that Coutinho was not needed, but rather that the Brazilian attacker had gone on strike and demanded the move. Liverpool acquiesced. The question for the Reds now is how to adjust to the loss of Coutinho and keep their excellent season moving along.

Liverpool’s last two matches show that the Coutinho question is highly contextual. On the one hand, Liverpool beat Manchester City without Coutinho. So this team is still capable of beating just about anyone in the world. But then the Reds went and lost to Swansea City. It was not a bad performance, and Liverpool had several chances to win the game, but the ball progression maps of their midfielders show that they struggled to get penetration into the penalty area for most of the match.

And it is precisely that sort of ball progression that is Coutinho’s specialty. Last season Coutinho averaged about six progressive passes or runs per 90 minutes—the statistic is defined as a pass or run that progresses the ball over 10 yards past its furthest point forward in the move, or moves the ball into the 18-yard box. The only players with better numbers were Chelsea’s Cesc Fabregas and City’s David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne. Elite creators like Mesut Ozil and Eden Hazard fell short of Coutinho, with just about five progressive passes or runs per match. This season Coutinho has improved, leading the league in progressive passes and runs with about 7.5 per 90 minutes. De Bruyne and Silva trail him with around 7 per 90.

What Coutinho offers, then, is the sort of elite ball progression that can break down a packed, organized defense. While Oxlade-Chamberlain and Adam Lallana both have put up reasonably good passing numbers, neither rates among the best of the best. Unless Liverpool make a big splash on the January market, they will most likely need to do without the peculiar skills that Countinho provides, and Jurgen Klopp will need to devise a different Plan B for breaking down packed defenses.

The Manchester City victory, however, militates against any rushed purchases or January overpayments. Given room to work in the open field by a high-pressing City side, Liverpool’s forwards ran rampant. They could break at pace into the final third or the penalty area because there was room to work. Where Liverpool may feel the loss of Coutinho is in matches like Monday’s, where an opponent sets out to stifle their attack and refuses to take the sort of attacking risks that could lead to dangerous attacks but could also disrupt their defensive shape. It may be only for a subset of the club’s matches that Coutinho’s absence is truly felt, and for those matches other options may be available.

Liverpool’s most creative attacker on Monday was new center back Virgil Van Dijk, who assisted two of the Reds’ three best scoring chances.

While Van Dijk surely cannot replicate this performance weekly, he does point to a possible solution for Liverpool short of a new purchase. In matches where the opposition packs in deep, unexpected players can join the attack. Liverpool will need more complex plans or scripted moves to bring these additional attackers into play, but for the precise matches where Coutinho is needed, one can imagine new tactical solutions building on the skills of Liverpool’s defenders. The loss of Coutinho then is a problem, but it looks like a limited and soluble one.

Alexis Sanchez had just been confirmed as the stellar new winter signing for Manchester United. We at Twelve are curious to know how the introduction of Alexis will impact Mourinho’s side. It is certain that Alexis will bring a greater attacking threat, but what can a Manchester United fans expect to see from him?

Alexis is a dynamic player that can occupy any attacking position across the frontline. Having played on right during his time at Barcelona, he is also comfortable on the left where he often played during his time at Arsenal. Alexis can even play as a play-maker or as a false nine as he had done at times in the national level and Udinese. It is difficult then to predict where his place will be in Mourinho’s side.

We can start by comparing Alexis’ performance this season with the rest of Manchester United’s squad. Using Twelve’s system, Alexis places first in overall points per minutes played throughout the season. Not surprisingly, his biggest contribution is his ability to generate offensive opportunities with passes and dribbles (green) while a fair share of his total contributions also comes from shots and goals (blue). Considering Mourinho’s defensive philosophy, Alexis will most likely be expected to increase defensive (red) and press (yellow) contributions to match those of Rashford and Martial. This should be no problem; the Chilean has always been highlighted for his work-rate and pressing abilities.

A new Martial to the team: If we focus a more detailed view of Alexis’s offensive display so far in the season, we can see that his best attacking contributions happen just inside and outside the penalty box. Alexis has the pace to get the ball in the middle of the pitch, carry it forward and find the space to release his teammates into. He also has the agility to receive the ball inside the opposition’s box, keep possession and work a shooting opportunity. When comparing offensive actions, we can’t help but see similarities in the between Alexis and Martial.

Attacking symmetry: We might expect that Mourinho will first try to place Sanchez on the right, a position that Mata currently occupies, to mirror Matial’s movement. When in control of the ball, Mata usually cuts inside and moves into a more creative central role. This is seen by the fact that Mata’s best attacking contributions only come from outside the penalty box. Alexis will offer Manchester United a direct route to the opposition’s penalty box taking advantage of the run of Antonio Valencia from behind. This reminds us of his time at Udinese and Barcelona.

Numbers will increase: Alexis has lacked efficiency in front of goal this season, having only scored 7 goals from 46 shots compared to last season where he converted in 24 occasions from 86 shots. A role from the left has made him predictable at times by always choosing to cut inside with his right foot. If Mourinho favours the option of playing him on the right it might help Alexis be more involved in the finishing.

Increased discipline from Alexis: From the later part of 16/17 season until now, Sanchez has had the tendency to drop deep in search of involvement in the play. Sometimes forced by discouraging results at Arsenal, Sanchez seeks to fill the void that allows his team to move the ball up the pitch. This has been the cause of a lot of unforced errors and lost possessions (marked by “x” in the diagram below). Often lost possession by Alexis has left Arsenal’s defence badly shaped and vulnerable as the team transitions into attack.

Manchester United’s next test in the Premier League will be against Tottenham. We expect Alexis to make an appearance from the start and show his offensive versatility, that no doubt will fit into Mourinho’s side.

Sebastian Cardoch is a football data analyst at Twelve.

A fresh face in the Manchester City starting XI for last weekend’s win over Newcastle United was that of 21-year- old Ukrainian, and product of Shakhtar Donetsk’s academy, Oleksandr Zinchenko. Bought in the summer 2016 from FC Ufa in the Russian Premier League, Zinchenko’s main position was as an attacking midfielder who could play anywhere across the frontline. His talent was already established: at the age of 19 years and 214 days he broke a 20-year- old record held by Andriy Shevchenko as he became Ukraine’s youngest goalscorer for the national team.

In the game against Newcastle, he was given his first league start by Guardiola in a relatively new role for him as the team’s left-back, providing cover for the injured Benjamin Mendy and Fabian Delph. Zinchenko was not fazed, looking at home on the left-hand side of the pitch at the Etihad Stadium. He had more touches than any other player on the field and completed 94% of his passes.

He was caught out on a couple of occasions defensively in the match, and he could be considered to blame for the goal conceded in the 67 th minute. A diagonal pass played in behind him caught him flat-footed and the wrong side of Newcastle’s Jacob Murphy who had a clear run towards a one on one against Ederson. Murphy put it away to make it 2-1.

Full-backs are a vital part of City’s exciting play and style, and there Zinchenko definitely did not disappoint. It was the Ukrainian international’s attacking ability going forward that really caught the eye and left little doubt regarding his talent. Below we show all of his passes, shading them according to their importance to City’s attack.

He was arguably City’s best player in the first half, with a memorable long pass around the 20-minute mark that just about found Sane in the box. Zinchenko was generally pushing high up the pitch, overlapping constantly providing treacherous cut-backs and crosses. Six crosses were put into the box by him from the left, and even though none found a City head they were dangerous – driven in with pace and beautiful shape. Another notable contribution came in the second half as his one- touch pass to De Bruyne in the 72 nd minute opened-up Newcastle’s defence and allowed the Belgian to square the ball to Sterling who was unlucky to hit the woodwork.

It was Zinchenko who ultimately came out on top in Twelve’s Attack Performance Rankings. We look forward to seeing more of him in the future, as he matures and develops.

David Sumpter is the author of Soccermatics.
Emri Dolev is a data scientist at twelve.football

Manchester City look like runaway title winners. They won the Manchester Derby over their likeliest title rival. That victory extended their first division record win streak. Then by defeating Swansea City 4-0, Pep Guardiola’s side expanded their goal difference to plus-41, well over two goals per match better than their league opponents. That pace would break the Premier League goal difference record by over 20 goals.

At this point, the question is not whether Manchester City will fall back into a title race but whether they’ll fall back to earth at all. This weekend it will be Tottenham Hotspur looking to test City. While the record numbers listed above suggest Spurs will be severe underdogs, the last two matches offered a few hints of the best ways to approach City. In particular, Manchester United managed to slow down City’s usually overwhelming forward progress in attack, and were done in instead by a pair of set play goals.

Against United, David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne turned their weakest combined ball progression numbers of the season. Neither prised open the United defense as easily as both regularly have against other opponents.

Their combined per 90 ball progression rating of 9.5 marked the only time this season the two have combined for under a 15 rating. This season De Bruyne and Silva have both averaged over 6.5 progressive passes and runs per 90, defined as passes or runs which progress the ball 10-15 yards beyond its further point of progress in the move in the attacking half. Among players with over 1000 minutes played, the City midfield pair are first and second in the league. But against United, Silva and De Bruyne managed to complete only six such passes, half their normal combined rate.

Although United did not come away with the points, or the better chances, Jose Mourinho successfully stymied the twin engines of City’s attack. Nemanja Matic, Ander Herrera and Jesse Lingard clogged the center and pressured Silva and De Bruyne, limiting the amount of open play penetration the City could achieve. The combination of defensive pressure on the ball and numbers behind it is not easy to achieve, but it was effective here.

For Tottenham this suggests one possible way forward. Toby Alderweireld’s Injury and Davinson Sanchez’s suspension have forced Spurs to play a back four after earlier success in a back three. They will need to use their midfield to prevent De Bruyne and Silva from picking passes into the spaces between the four deepest defenders. Tottenham this season have shown occasional willingness to concede space, drop midfielders into a deeper block and play on the counter—primarily in the Champions League against Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund. Such an approach against City would be to invite disaster, but it is possible Spurs could manage to find the balance that United did. It would depend on the pressing of Mousa Dembele and likely require Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli to be deployed in more defensive roles, so the team could pressure Silva and De Bruyne without leaving too much space behind for them to pass into.

Of course, when Manchester City found midfield inhospitable during the Derby, they still created a pair of goals from set pieces. The problem with facing a great team is they might beat you anyway even if you win a few tactical battles.

Still, the success of United at slowing down City’s open play attack by stifling De Bruyne and Silva suggests this can be accomplished. Both have already started two matches this week and De Bruyne’s workload—only one missed start between the Premier and Champions Leagues—is approaching the inhumane. If Tottenham are to have a chance in this match, it most likely begins with a defensive, low-block structure and the application of tactics reminiscent of Jose Mourinho.